The Well-Tempered Ear
Looks like there will be no live concerts for the rest of the 2020-21 season and maybe until early 2022
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By Jacob Stockinger
Some important things for classical music fans to know happened over the weekend, even as Dane County continues to break records for new cases of coronavirus.
Three high federal health officials, including director of the CDC Dr. Robert Redfield and his colleague Dr. Anthony Fauci, have testified that it is highly unlikely that vaccines for the coronavirus will be widely available to the public until May 2021 at the earliest and may well be delayed until early 2022 or later.
President Donald Trump says they are wrong, but the public health officials are standing by their estimates.
Adding to the concern is that the rate of people who say they will not get the hurried vaccine continues to rise from 35 percent to 50 percent or more.
In addition, there are reports of logistical problems because the vaccines will be difficult to distribute as they require cold temperatures.
This amounts to bad news for a long list of local arts presenters.
The net effect is that mass gatherings – such as concerts – will not be safe to attend for the rest of this season and perhaps until the beginning of 2022.
That means that many groups that have planned on reopening by January or February are likely to cancel or postpone events for the remainder of this season, and perhaps also for next fall – just as they planned for doing this concert season.
Instead there will probably be more virtual and online events substituted for in-person events — if anything at all is offered.
Among the major groups who have announced earlier reopening and be affected by the new deadlines are: the Madison Symphony Orchestra (below top); the Madison Opera; the Wisconsin Chamber Orchestra (below bottom, in a photo by Mike Gorski); the Wisconsin Union Theater; the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Mead Witter School of Music; the Wisconsin Youth Symphony Orchestras (WYSO); and the Middleton Community Orchestra.
We can all hope that live music starts happening sooner. But The Ear suspects that alternative plans are already being drawn up and will be announced shortly.
What do you think about the estimates of the delays in vaccine accessibility and acceptance?
What do you think music groups will do – or should do in –in the wake of the public health crisis?
The Ear wants to hear.
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Classical music: The Met just canceled its entire fall opera season. Can local groups be far behind?
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PLEASE HELP THE EAR. IF YOU LIKE A CERTAIN BLOG POST, SPREAD THE WORD. FORWARD A LINK TO IT OR, SHARE IT or TAG IT (not just “Like” it) ON FACEBOOK. Performers can use the extra exposure to draw potential audience members to an event. And you might even attract new readers and subscribers to the blog.
By Jacob Stockinger
The question has weighed on The Ear ever since local groups started announcing their new concert seasons.
Will audiences – especially older and more vulnerable ones — be ready to risk venturing into crowds of 500, 1,000 or 2,000 people without an effective treatment or vaccine for global pandemic of the coronavirus (below) and the growing number of deaths from COVID-19?
Now such suspicions have been supported or even confirmed by news that the world-famous Metropolitan Opera (below), at Lincoln Center in New York City, has just canceled all of its live fall productions.
It cited concerns about the safety of both the public and the performers. And its reasoning makes sense — even though it is estimated that the Met will lose up to $100 million. It is hard or impossible in concert halls and on stages (below is a photo of the Met’s stage) to use masks and maintain social distancing.
All in all, it sounds all too familiar, similar to the reasons given for cancellations this past winter and spring, and even this summer.
Here’s a link about the Met cancellation, with lots of details and quotes, in The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/arts/music/metropolitan-opera-cancels-season-virus.html
Locally, it seemed like the show might go on when many groups – despite the public health crisis growing worse — went ahead and started announcing their fall seasons or even an event this summer, as in the case of the Wisconsin Chamber Orchestra’s Concerts on the Square, which were postponed by a month.
After all, the Madison Symphony Orchestra (below, in a photo by Greg Anderson), the Madison Opera, the Wisconsin Chamber Orchestra, the Wisconsin Union Theater, the Middleton Community Orchestra and the Madison Bach Musicians have all announced new seasons — as did the Chicago Symphony Orchestra and the Milwaukee Symphony Orchestra. (You can hear about the Madison Symphony Orchestra’s new “Ode to Joy” season in the YouTube video at the bottom.)
The UW-Madison – the biggest presenter of live concerts in the Madison area with some 300 events a year – has wisely not yet announced its concert season, let alone how it will hold lessons and classes.
The Ear suspects that more cancellations are in the making, especially when it comes to mass gatherings such as concerts, movies, plays and sports events.
Indeed, it seems like many of the groups even took possible cancellations into consideration when it came to planning programs; cutting back on expenses and staffing; and using local or regional guest artists, who might be less expensive and less difficult to cancel, rather than long-distance imported ones.
Even if a vaccine is perfected by Jan. 1, it will take a while to produce enough of it, then to administer it and then to have it take effect.
But perhaps those suspicions and speculations are overly cautious or too pessimistic.
What do you think will happen to the fall concert season?
Will going online and streaming new or past concerts once again be a substitution?
Has the pandemic changed your own habits — perhaps waiting to purchase single tickets rather than renew a season subscription? Or your plans for the fall season, perhaps even the entire season?
The Ear wants to hear.
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The Well-Tempered Ear 
Classical music: It’s clear to The Ear: It will be at least another full year before audiences in the U.S. can safely attend live concerts. What do you think?
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PLEASE HELP THE EAR. IF YOU LIKE A CERTAIN BLOG POST, SPREAD THE WORD. FORWARD A LINK TO IT OR, SHARE IT or TAG IT (not just “Like” it) ON FACEBOOK. Performers can use the extra exposure to draw potential audience members to an event. And you might even attract new readers and subscribers to the blog.
By Jacob Stockinger
All the signs point to the same conclusion: It will be at least the fall of 2021 before we can safely attend concerts again – if we are lucky.
These past two weeks, The Ear answered questionnaires sent out by the Madison Symphony Orchestra (below top), which has already canceled the season through January, and the Wisconsin Union Theater (below bottom is Shannon Hall).
If you read between the lines, both questionnaires seemed to suggest the same two things: that the entire 2020-21 concert season will be canceled or postponed; or else that it will feature virtual online performances — for ticket prices (perhaps called a “donation”) that have not yet been announced and may not be acceptable to a lot of any group’s core audience.
Perhaps you disagree. If so, The Ear would like to hear in the comment section what you think and why you think it.
Here is what The Ear, who has talked with other season subscribers and various musicians, has seen and heard.
The United States has now surpassed 5 million coronavirus infections and 163,000 Covid-19 deaths with no sign of slowing down and many signs of accelerating. One widely cited model now predicts 300,000 deaths by this Dec. 1.
Plus, too many Americans refuse to wear masks or to maintain social distancing or to shelter at home to help prevent the spread of the virus.
Add in that we will be fortunate if enough vaccines are found to be safe, efficient and approved for use by Jan 1.
Then – despite federal government’s “Warp Speed” development or fast-tracking of the search for vaccines — there is the time needed to manufacture enough of them.
Then it will take considerable time to distribute them equitably, which other countries and public health agencies around the world demand.
Then, if we hope to reach herd immunity, it will take time to convince enough people to get the vaccine, especially with the growing number of anti-vaxxers.
Then those who do get vaccinated will have to wait a month for the second shot that will be required.
Then we wait a few weeks to see if and how much the vaccine really works – if it is safe and prevents infection or at least lessens the damage of the disease if you do get infected.
Plus, it sees unreasonable to think all of these steps will go without a hitch. So maybe a few more weeks or even months should be added.
Add up the math, and the conclusion seems clear: Performing arts events, like sports and other large in-person gatherings, seem increasingly likely to be canceled or reconfigured for a full year.
Concerts are already taking place in China, and other countries in Asia and Europe seem likely to catch up soon. But music lovers in the U.S. will be lucky if they get to attend a live concert with 100 or 500 or 1,000 or 2,500 other people before the fall of 2021 – at least a full year away. Maybe more.
The Ear could well be wrong. Maybe you see a different conclusion, which we would all love to hear. Perhaps international readers will share estimates about when concerts will begin in their country.
One way or another, we will learn a lot more about how the new music season is being planned and changed in the next three weeks.
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